Moving Averages are technical tools designed to measure the
momentum and direction of a trend. The idea behind their creation is
simple. Price action is thought to fluctuate around the average value
over a period of time, and we can expect to be able to the represent the
market's momentum by calculating if the current prices are above or
below the market's average value. But since the total length of the time
period that must be included in the calculation of the average is too
large (are we going to begin in 1980, or the year 2000 while computing
our time series?), we pick the period arbitrarily, and update the
average as time progresses.
Why Should I Use Moving Averages?
Moving averages are some of the most useful and effective gauges of
market action in a trending market. Crossovers, divergences, as well as
trends of the moving average itself can be used to analyze and
crystallize the signals that can be distilled from the market action,
which can then be used to help us make future decisions about our
trades.
Types of Moving Averages
There are a large number of moving averages available for traders. Some of them are:
Simple Moving Average
The simple moving average is the most basic of these tools. It simply
sums up the cloaisng prices over a specified time, and divides them by
the duration of the period, reaching at the value of the indicator. No
weighting is used, and no smoothing factor is applied.
Exponential Moving Average
The exponential moving average is one of a number of different moving
average types that gives greater value to the most recent prices. As
its name implies, the weighting is done exponentially. In other words,
as we move to the left on the chart (towards past values), the weighting
that they receive in the computation of the MA decreases rapidly
(faster than it would be in a linear progression), and the most recent
prices are far more significant, as a result, in determining the value
of the indicator.
Smoothed Moving Averaged
The smoothed moving average is similar to EMA, except that it takes
all available data into account. The earliest price values are never
discarded, but receive a lower weighting, and possess a smaller role in
determining the value of the indicator. As its name hints, the smoothed
moving average is mostly used to smoothen the price action, removing
short-term volatility, allowing us a better understanding of the long
term momentum of the market.
Linear Regressed Moving Average
This moving average is similar to the MA, except that the weighting
factors are linear, not exponential. For example, the price of the
earliest period (n) is multiplied with 1, the following, more recent
period (n-1) is multiplied by a factor of, 2, and the next one is
multiplied by 3, and so on, until we reach the present timeframe. In
this context, the most recent prices receive greater emphasis, and the
latest fluctuations, rises or falls are depicted with greater clarity,
aiding trade decisions.
Using the Moving Averages
Although there are almost countless improvised, and professionally
created strategies based on moving averages, there are three typical
methods that lie at the basis of most of the strategies and methods.
Crossovers
Crossovers arise when the price rises or falls below the moving
average, signaling the end or the beginning of a new trend. Crossovers
are some of the most common occurrences in technical trading, and as
such, do not grant us a great deal of predictive power in the evaluation
of the market action. They are used best in combination with other
tools and techniques when we seek to evaluate the price action with
greater confidence.
Moving Average Trends
Apart from trends in the price action itself, the moving average can
also have its own trend at times. It is possible to take advantage of
these trends for determining entry/exit points. Although not as reliable
as the price trend itself when used alone, it can be an efficient way
to confirm the price action when used in combination with it.
Divergence/Convergence
A divergence occurs when the trend is in ascendance, but the moving
average is descending. A convergence happens when the market trend is
bearish, but the moving average contradicts it by registering higher
highs. These events are thought to signal a future reversal. When the
price action is contradicted by the indicator values, the expectation is
that the market is about to run out of energy, and it may be a good
time to open a counter-trend position. It is important to remember that
timing is very uncertain in all these formations, and that the
anticipated reversal may never occur. Especially in strong trends, it is
common to observe divergence/convergence phenomenon arise regularly
without leading to any significant reversal. Still, it is the rarest,
and most popular technical configuration preferred in the interpretation
of a moving average.
MA Hopping
We use this term to define a method of trading in which MAs of
different periods are used as successive resistance levels for the price
action to breach. For example, we expect an ongoing trend to first
breach the 1-hour, then the 3-hour, then the 10, and 40-hour moving
averages in succession, and may choose to open a position at each of
these successive indicators. Since we anticipate continuity between
levels indicated by these MAs, we will maintain our positions as the
price hops, so to speak, between them.
We'll examine each of these methods as we discuss each moving average
type in its own article. To learn more about how these calculations are
performed you are invited to visit the relevant page.
Conclusions
The main weakness of the moving average is its lagged nature. In many
cases, and especially for short term fluctuations, by the time a moving
average captures a market event, it may have already ended. The moving
average will only note a developing market pattern after it has been set
up convincingly, and if the pattern is short-lived, it will not be
possible to trade it, and we may suffer from whipsaws as well.
The strength of this indicator type is its ease-of-use, clarity, and
simplicity. They can be easily incorporated into any overall strategy,
and it is also possible to devise methods exclusively through the usage
of the moving average as well. The great versatility of this indicator
type makes it a valuable addition to any trader's arsenal of technical
tools, regardless of trading style, or the preferred market type.
